A dated account of the loan, the first warning, and how the bank gets repaid. Read down; the loan position follows the story.
Change the aircraft
02 · Story A
A fictional case, with modeled figures. Events, provider responses, maintenance work, and lender decisions below are assumptions.
The credit question
Same aircraft, same lapse. Compare two assumed paths to a sale. Change the market or the timing and the answer changes with it.
Scenario results, not measured customer outcomes. The comparison combines detection timing and sale assumptions. A missed loan payment could alert either lender sooner.
Choose the world
01 · The number
03 · Where it ends
Read the other ending:
The loan
The market and the clock
The comparison case
Annual review is a timing assumption, not a claim that a lender ignores missed payments. Set detection to the same day to remove that advantage.
The loan has a 5-year term and a balloon. Base rate starts at an assumed 3.64%, with the selected rate path applied to both cases. The repayment path sends a paydown request when LTV exceeds the action threshold. The borrower responds within the notice period; actual principal is reduced to restore LTV to the lower of 70% or one percentage point below the action threshold. Interest reflects the reduced principal and the next monthly installment is recast. Program-cure scenarios assume the provider confirms reinstatement on that response date; program arrears are separate from loan principal. Story B assumes confirmed program suspension, missed loan payments, no reinstatement, and a voluntary surrender after the cure window. Debt accrues at the scenario rate, compounded monthly, with no default-rate premium or late fees. Recovery and ferry cost 1.5% of value at recovery; daily carry is 0.2% of contemporaneous value per 30.44 days in possession. Market liquidity at listing sets the modeled file’s time to a buyer and discount: liquid, 60 days and 4%; normal, 120 days and 8%; thin, 240 days and 14%. The sale price is fixed at signing. Taxes, legal fees, brokerage fees, and any recovery from guarantees are excluded.
Borrowers and aircraft identities are fictional. Opening values and projected value curves use Radar’s valuation model bundled with this page; this is not a live valuation feed. Historical sale inputs are broker-reported observations captured July 16, 2026, without independently verified closing consideration. Comparison bars adjust for model year only; they do not adjust for hours, condition, or program status. Future comp examples and all narrative events are simulated. Program suspension does not by itself establish an actual sale price or legal remedy. This is an illustrative scenario, not an appraisal or an offer of credit. Explore the loan stress test →
